Appraising climate change impacts on future water resources and agricultural productivity in agro-urban river basins

نویسندگان

چکیده

Climate change can have an adverse effect on agricultural productivity and water availability in semi-arid regions, as changes surface lead to groundwater depletion resultant losses crop yield. These inter-relationships necessitate integrated management approach for water, groundwater, yield a holistic system. This study quantifies the future of associated production large agro-urban river basin which irrigation is leader consumer water. The region South Platte River Basin (72,000 km2), Colorado, USA. coupled SWAT-MODFLOW modeling code used hydrologic simulator forced with five different CMIP5 climate models downscaled by Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), each two scenarios, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, 1980–2100. model accounts runoff, soil lateral flow, groundwater-surface interactions, from per-field basis. In all emission increase 3 5 °C annual average temperature projected. Whereas, variation projected precipitation depends topography distances mountains. Based results this study, worst-case IPSL-CM5A-MR-8.5. Under scenario, 1 1.3% reduction precipitation, will experience 8.5% decrease stream discharge, 2–5% decline storage, 11% indicate significant food resources basin, pointing need immediate implementation conservation practices.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Science of The Total Environment

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['0048-9697', '1879-1026']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147717